Trump promises $2,000 to 85% of Americans: The crypto market is racing

By promising $2,000 per American, financed by customs duties, Donald Trump is shaking up the budgetary codes. Without waiting for the legal green light, risky assets, crypto in the lead, are already anticipating the impact of such an injection. This political blow, which looks like a unilateral stimulus, triggers as many hopes as doubts, between a populist drift and a speculative catalyst.

$2,000 to restart the machine

On Sunday, Donald Trump, after sowing chaos in the crypto ecosystem with his tariffs, surprised the markets with an unexpected economic announcement: “a dividend of at least $2,000 per person, except high-income earners, will be paid to everyone”did he declared on Truth Social.

Presented as a form of redistribution of revenue from its tariff policies, this initiative aims to directly inject purchasing power into the American economy, without going through a traditional recovery plan. Although the announcement does not yet have the force of law, it immediately triggered reactions in the financial sphere, particularly in the crypto ecosystem.

The details known at this stage allow us to better understand the outlines of the proposal:

• The amount announced: $2,000 per person, except for high incomes;

• The source of financing: revenue generated by tariffs imposed by the Trump administration;

• The estimated eligibility rate: about 85% of American adults, based on the distribution criteria of previous stimulus checks;

• The immediate reaction of the markets: crypto investors perceived this promise as a bullish signal.

This promise, perceived as a form of “stimulus without the Fed”brought back memories of COVID checks and their impact on the crypto market. At the time, a significant portion of these funds had been redirected into cryptos, causing spectacular increases.

Trump's announcement seems to want to recreate this same effect, this time through a unilateral and politically marked measure.

A recovery under conditions: the legal barrier and systemic risks

Despite the apparent euphoria, the announced measure remains legally uncertain. Indeed, the United States Supreme Court is currently examining the legality of the tariffs that caused this dividend.

In fact, expectations are hardly favorable. According to the predictive market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, the chances of validation by the Court are 23% and 21% respectively. Trump was outraged by this institutional opposition, arguing : “the President of the United States is authorized, with the approval of Congress, to stop all commerce with a foreign country… but could not impose a simple tariff, even for reasons of national security? ».

This legal point of friction adds to the economic warnings formulated by several analysts. The Kobeissi Letter underlines that if part of the injected funds can fuel the asset markets, the long-term consequences would be far from neutral: increase in public debt, inflationary pressure and erosion of purchasing power.

“Stocks and bitcoin tend to rise as soon as an economic recovery is announced”commented Anthony Pompliano.

Bitcoin analyst and advocate Simon Dixon warned: “if you don't put the $2,000 in assets, it will just be eaten away by inflation or used to pay interest to banks”.

If it sees the light of day, this measure could inject billions into the American economy. Enough to fuel the appetite for risk and influence the price of bitcoin and other cryptos, already sensitive to political announcements. It remains to be seen whether justice will validate this strategy on the borders of recovery and propaganda.