Bitcoin may never fall below $100,000 again according to Standard Chartered

A historic turning point could happen in just a few days. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of crypto at Standard Chartered, suggests that one favorable week would be enough for bitcoin to never fall below $100,000 again. In a note released this Monday, October 27, he asserts that if current macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics are confirmed, the six-figure threshold could become a new sustainable floor for the market. This projection, if verified, would redefine the benchmarks of the entire industry.

Towards a Sino-American truce with immediate effects on the markets?

Contrary to his estimate of a break below $100,000, in his latest analyst note, Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of crypto research at Standard Chartered, says that “market fear has turned into hope” thanks to a series of positive geopolitical signals.

A diplomatic warming between Washington and Beijing could redefine the short-term outlook on financial markets, including cryptos. According to Kendrick, this dynamic could sustainably support bitcoin if it is confirmed in the days to come.

Here is the key elements of this relaxation and their implications:

• A suspension of Chinese restrictive measures: China could postpone its export controls on rare earths for a year, a major gesture in the context of trade negotiations;

• The commitment on agricultural imports: Beijing plans to massively purchase American soybeans for several years, in return for the United States abandoning the threat of 100% customs tariffs;

• A decisive summit to come: the details of the agreement should be finalized during a crucial meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, scheduled for this Thursday in South Korea;

• The immediate repercussions on risk assets: this easing led to a rebound in the bitcoin/gold ratio, returning above the levels before the crash of October 10;

• A psychological indicator closely monitored: Kendrick emphasizes that “if this ratio goes back above 30, it will mark the end of the market’s fear phase”.

These signals converge towards an optimistic reading of the markets in the short term. The improvement in the global geopolitical climate could therefore, according to Standard Chartered, open a new bullish phase for bitcoin, no longer simply correlated to supply, but largely stimulated by the return of appetite for risk on a global scale.

Market signals as catalysts for a new paradigm

The picture drawn by Geoffrey Kendrick goes beyond the geopolitical environment. It is also, and perhaps above all, based on purely structural elements linked to market dynamics. The head of Standard Chartered highlights a decisive indicator: capital flows to spot Bitcoin ETFs.

He notes that more than two billion dollars left gold-backed ETFs between Wednesday and Friday of last week. “It would be a strong signal of renewed confidence if even half of these funds were redirected to Bitcoin ETFs between Monday and Wednesday”he writes.

A possible new historic peak for bitcoin, which according to Kendrick would constitute a symbolic and fundamental shift. “If an ATH occurs this week, it would sign the death warrant of the halving cycle as a price driver of the queen crypto”he says.

In his view, the influence of institutional flows via ETFs now outweighs traditional supply adjustment mechanisms. The relevance of the cyclical model based on reward reductions for minors is fading in favor of a logic of institutional adoption.

If these elements were to be confirmed in the days to come, between publication of results from tech giants, FOMC meeting and diplomatic detente, the implications would be major. Bitcoin would no longer be just a speculative or cyclical asset, but a mature investment vehicle, anchored in fund strategy. The threshold of $100,000, often seen as a peak, could then become a floor.