October often rhymes with “Uptober”this month when bitcoin ignites the markets with spectacular increases. However this year, the scenario turns to disillusionment. After a promising start, the queen of cryptos is bogged down in an unexpected bearish dynamic, reviving fears of a possible “Red October”. A first since 2018, which tests investor confidence and questions the strength of the market in the face of an increasingly tense global economic context.
In brief
- The month of October, usually synonymous with “Uptober”, takes an unexpected turn this year with Bitcoin losing momentum.
- After a promising start to the month, the flagship crypto is stuck in a downward trend which worries investors.
- This poor performance contrasts sharply with the previous months of October, previously marked by spectacular increases.
- However, some analysts remain hopeful of a rebound, believing that the second half of the month could still hold surprises.
A month of October under pressure
The performance of bitcoin during the month of October proved disappointing, after a fanfare start which revealed a positive period.
Here is the key elements which explain this situation:
- A decline of 2.3%: the price of bitcoin is currently down 2.3% compared to its level at the start of the month;
- The worst October since 2013: If this trend continues, October 2025 could become one of the worst months in the history of bitcoin, while in the past, these months were often synonymous with strong increases, with gains above 40%;
- Market Volatility: Bitcoin is in a tight range between $107,000 and $111,500, reflecting stagnation from high expectations earlier this month;
- A “red October” in preparation: a drop of 4% compared to the current level would be enough to transform this month of October into a historic underperformance;
- Pressure factors: the situation is exacerbated by massive liquidations of long positions, rapid profit-taking and uncertainties over global economic decisions, notably the monetary policy of the United States Federal Reserve.
These factors combined to fuel an atmosphere of disappointment among investors, whose hopes quickly dissipated after a promising start to October.
The outlook: between hope and caution
The coming weeks could, however, bring comfort to investors. According to network economist Timothy Peterson, a significant portion of bitcoin's annual gains often occur after October 3, pointing to a potential recovery in the following days.
It indicates that “60% of the total performance of the year occurs after this date”a dynamic which could still work in favor of a favorable trend reversal, although the current situation is delicate.
The potential surge in interest could also be fueled by expected announcements from the Federal Reserve at its Oct. 29 meeting, including an end to quantitative tightening, which would provide a more favorable environment for risk assets, including bitcoin.
However, investors should remain cautious. Although signals of a trend reversal exist, economic uncertainty, coupled with erratic movements in the crypto market, makes prediction difficult. The risks of further corrections are very real, and investors should prepare for continued fluctuations.
Ultimately, although the outcome of this month of October seems uncertain, it calls into question the resilience of the bitcoin market in the face of economic hazards and global monetary decisions. The outcome of this month could lay the foundations for a new dynamic, either towards a solid recovery, or towards an extension of volatility as evidenced by Polymarket's forecasts.
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