Stuck in a symmetrical triangle since mid-September, Solana's price reflects a war of attrition between buyers and sellers. Neither side is giving up. But technical and on-chain signals are converging: this impasse is coming to an end. The next breakout could well decide the fate of SOL for the weeks to come.
In brief
- Long-term holder sales have fallen 60% since the beginning of October, from 11.43 million SOL to 4.55 million.
- 1-3 month holders increased their share from 15.21% to 18.66%, a sign of silent accumulation.
- The symmetrical triangle tightens around two critical thresholds: $211 on the upside and $174 on the downside.
Solana on the verge of a break between buyers and sellers
Analysis of blockchain data reveals a notable evolution in investment strategies. The net position change indicator shows that long-term holders continue to sell, but at a significantly slower pace. This 60% deceleration is often an early signal of a reversal near local bottoms.
Short-term traders are also changing their approach. Between October 9 and 23, portfolios holding SOL for less than a month significantly reduced their exposure. This contraction demonstrates opportunistic profit-taking during brief rebounds.
At the same time, a category of investors is emerging as a stabilizing force: those who hold their positions for between 1 and 3 months. Their share increased by almost 23%, demonstrating confidence in discreet accumulation during downturns. This dynamic explains why Solana maintains its range without suddenly collapsing.
The macro context reinforces this cautious optimism. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, anticipates that “ SOL targets $210-220, supported by expanding DeFi activity and validator growth “.
She also emphasizes that “ regulatory thaw and liquidity tailwinds fuel renewed optimism towards cryptos ”, creating one of the most constructive environments for the sector in recent years.
A symmetrical triangle that announces the color
On the daily chart, Solana has been moving in a symmetrical triangle since mid-September. Every peak is lower, every trough higher. This compression reflects the total indecision of the market. But history teaches us that a triangle always ends up exploding in one direction or the other.
Two levels now define the battlefield. A break above $211 would provide advantage to buyers and sign the exit from the top of the triangle. Conversely, a break below $174 would confirm sellers regaining control.
Between these two boundaries, $197 is the first resistance to watch, while $188 remains the key support. A close below $188 would open the way towards $174. A bounce above $197 could trigger an acceleration towards $211, a potential gain of over 9%.
In this context, Solana is also trying to regain its leadership in decentralized finance. With Percolator, its new DEX of perpetual contracts, the ecosystem is fighting back against Hyperliquid and Aster. This technology battle could influence market perception and attract new capital if execution follows.
The battle between buyers and sellers remains balanced, but the countdown is on. The charts and on-chain data agree: the next breakout is near. And it will be decisive.
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