On October 29, the Fed could tip everything for Bitcoin

The markets are almost unanimously bet on a drop in rates on October 29. However, a much more discreet scenario begins to worry: that of a status quo of the Fed. In a context of incomplete economic data and persistent uncertainty about growth, the hypothesis of a strategic immobility is gaining ground. What if this scenario, still largely underestimated, triggered the most violent reaction of the markets?

The markets are relying on monetary relaxation

For several weeks, the markets have been acting as if a drop in 25 basic points of guiding rates by the federal reserve, during the FOMC meeting on October 29, was already acquired.

The majority of traders anticipate a drop, convinced that the slowdown in inflation and the tensions on employment justify a relaxation. This confidence resulted in a notable increase in the main stock market indices and a rally of the Crypto market, including Bitcoin exceeding 125,000.

The central argument put forward by investors is based on a favorable reading of several recent macroeconomic indicators. However, this dynamic is based on fragile bases, due to several elements ::

• Inflation has shown signs of slowing down, strengthening the idea that the Restrictive Cycle of the Fed is coming to an end;

• The job market reveals signs of moderation, with a relative drop in job creations in certain key sectors;

• The Shutdown of the federal government complicates access to reliable macroeconomic data, making the analysis more uncertain than it seems;

• The financial markets already seem to have anticipated the drop in rates, which makes any potential divergence all the more risky.

In other words, the current consensus is not based solely on tangible facts, but also, and perhaps above all, on a very optimistic reading of a largely opaque economic environment.

What if the Fed decided to delay?

In a climate where the expectation of a monetary pivot seems almost unanimously shared, some analysts are starting to worry about an alternative scenario that could surprise the markets: the one where the Fed would choose not to lower its rates on October 29.

Such a scenario would constitute a shock, of course, but it cannot be excluded: it would reflect a Fed strategy aimed at preserving its monetary maneuver for 2026, in anticipation of a possible more severe recession. This hypothesis, still a minority, gains credibility as the uncertainties surrounding the trajectory of growth intensifies.

Unlike current enthusiasm, this scenario is based on a logic of monetary prudence. The Fed, faced with incomplete economic data because of the Shutdown, could judge a decline decision premature without having a complete macroeconomic table.

It could also fear to feed new speculative bubbles on the risky markets, including cryptos, already in strong overvaluation according to several analysts.

An unexpected status quo could trigger an immediate sale on actions and cryptos, with bitcoin likely to repeat several thousand dollars in a few hours. More volatile altcoins could record two -digit losses.

Ultimately, this sequence could mark a turning point in the way the markets read and interpret the monetary policy signals in a situation of uncertainty linked to the Shutdown. The present case reveals a strong dependence on the dominant narratives, but also the fragility of a system where confidence is based on a homogeneous reading of data sometimes absent. An unpredictable FED on October 29 would not only enhance the markets, but it would test the reflexes and the resilience of a crypto ecosystem still widely conditioned by the decisions of the American Central Bank.