Solana records a historic record: 71.8 million soil are engaged in term contracts. This Open Interest peak could evoke a rise in power. However, the crypto fell by 18 % in a week, signing one of the worst performance on the market. This discrepancy between upward speculation and collapse of the price questions: is the market doped by an excessive lever?
In short
- Solana records an open record record of 71.8 million soil on its term contracts, despite an uncertain market context.
- The soil price drops by 18 % over the week, one of the worst performance of the Top 20 Crypto, aroused concerns about a long squeeze.
- The technical signals are downgraded, with a falling RSI and chartist figures which suggest a return to $ 120 or even $ 110.
- The scenario of a prolonged floor withdrawal is emerging if the current support levels give in, against a background of network activity losing speed.
An open interest record and a risk of long squeeze
Solana has crossed an unprecedented threshold on its term contracts, with an open interest reaching 71.8 million soil, or about 14.5 billion dollars, while the crypto undergoes a brutal correction.
This peak of open positions occurs while the price of the asset fell 18 % over the week, one of the bad performance of the Top 20 Crypto this year. Such a configuration reveals an increasing imbalance. Perpetual financing rates are again positive at 0.0043 %, against -0.0065 % previously, which reflects a dominance of long leverages, in a market, which is downward.
The classic scenario of a “long squeeze” seems to be looming, while prices continue to drop despite an increasing interest in derivatives.
THE market data point Towards a dynamic generally unfavorable to the bruises, with several negative technical signals:
- The net volume of takers (Net Taker Volume) is mainly a seller, indicating that a drop in the most aggressive orders;
- The CVD Spot (Cumulative Delta Volume) is downwards, which reveals that the selling pressure also comes from the Spot market, and not only derivative products;
- The price of the ground has been on the way to its lowest weekly fence since the end of August, suggesting a significant technical break.
Thus, the current behavior of the market derived from Solana does not testify to a renewed confidence, but rather an imbalance, where the intensive use of the lever could amplify the correction in progress.
Recoles network fundamentals: the adoption of Solana is running out of steam
Beyond the signals from derivative markets, Solana's on-chain data also show signs of weakness. Indeed, the total locked value (TVL) on the Solana DEFI ecosystem dropped by 16 % in the last seven days.
At the same time, the number of daily transactions fell 11 %, testifying to a slowdown in activity on the chain. This withdrawal comes while Solana is undergoing increasingly marked competition from other layer 1 blockchains, in a context where technical innovation is no longer enough to maintain user traction.
The RSI (relative force index) has gone from 69 to 37 since September 18, which indicates a growing slide momentum, without being still in the occurrence zone.
In parallel, chartist analysts observe an “inverted V” configuration, often heralding of downward reversals. This figure suggests a return to a support area around $ 155, or even a deeper withdrawal to $ 120 if the movement continues. The contrast between these signals and the record level of Open Interest triggers the spectrum of a long imminent squeeze.
In this context, several scenarios remain possible. A rebound could take place if the price manages to stabilize around the technical areas identified and if the Solana development team manages to reactivate the interest around innovations or strategic partnerships. Conversely, a lack of positive catalysts combined with persistent selling pressure could precipitate a more durable correction phase.
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