The latest data in American inflation instill new momentum with Bitcoin. However, analysts remain shared on short -term trajectory. The flagship crypto flirts with $ 115,000 while speculation about a drop in Fed rates are intensifying. Could a new correction precede the long-awaited flight?
In short
- Bitcoin jumped over $ 114,000 following US inflation data that meets expectations.
- The IPC confirms the slowdown in inflation, strengthening betting on a drop in Fed rates.
- The markets anticipate 75 points of basis of lower rates by the end of 2025.
- Some analysts fear a bullish trap before a new correction.
American inflation boasts hopes of an increase in bitcoin
Bitcoin investors had something to rejoice on Thursday morning. The US consumer price index (IPC) in August came in accordance with 2.5 % expectations in annual rate.
This data, coupled with the marked slowdown in the production price index the day before, confirms the downward trend of inflation across the Atlantic.
However, the real catalyst comes from the job market. Initial requests for unemployment benefits jumped 263,000, against 235,000 expected. This level has been the highest since October 2021, feeding concerns about the health of the American labor market.
This data conjunction considerably strengthens the expectations of monetary easing. The markets now anticipate 75 points of basis for lower interest rates by the end of the year. Even more impressive: the probability of a drop of 0.5 % at the September 17 meeting now reaches 11 %.
For Bitcoin, these perspectives are particularly favorable. The flagship crypto traditionally benefits from accommodating monetary policies, which push investors to alternative assets. THE Crossing the symbolic threshold of $ 114,000 illustrates this dynamic, Bitcoin reaching its highest levels for three weeks.
Analysts shared between euphoria and tactical prudence
Despite this remarkable performance, analysts remain shared on the short -term trajectory of Bitcoin. The optimists see in this rebound the prelude to an assault on $ 115,000, or even beyond. The tilting of $ 113,500 of the level of resistance to support constitutes for them a major technical signal.
“” Inflation is not as high as expected; A drop in rates is expected later this month. Summates the popular trader Jelle in a post X. This reading suggests that Bitcoin could continue its ascent, carried by improving the macroeconomic context.
Other voices are more careful. Analyst Trader Skew anticipates “liquidation before an increase”, pointing to the appearance of 2,000 BTC of liquidity in the order books. This technical configuration could trap long input positions massively after the publication of inflation data.
The recent history also pleads for prudence. Ted Pillows observes a recurring pattern:
During the last three data publications of the IPC, Bitcoin has progressed before the publication of the data of the IPC and fell just after the publication of the data.
This technical analysis suggests that a correction could take place, despite the ambient optimism.
This volatility on Bitcoin intervenes in a particular geopolitical context. Michael Saylor, an emblematic figure of institutional adoption, intensifies his campaign to convince Washington to massively accumulate Bitcoin reserves.
The Congress also examines a project imposing on the Treasury a report on the feasibility of a strategic reserve within 90 days. Together, these elements nourish the narrative “strategic active bitcoin”, capable of strengthening the medium-term demand, even if the short term remains subject to liquidity jerks.
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