Crypto: XRP could still fall before exploding according to Benjamin Cowen

While the crypto market oscillates between euphoria and uncertainty, the XRP is the subject of a serious warning. According to analyst Benjamin Cowen, the crypto could experience a final fall before reaching its top of the cycle. This analysis, based not on promises, but on historical technical signals, invites caution.

A technical withdrawal before the peak?

In his latest podcast, Benjamin Cowen delivers a prudent, but detailed technical analysis on the XRP trajectory. According to him, the crypto could soon be correction before reaching its cycle top, after a rebound at $ 3.27.

“The XRP could come back to test its bullish support area, probably between $ 2.60 and $ 2.70”,, noted-Al. This scenario is modeled on the previous Haussiers cycles of the crypto, where this type of withdrawal had preceded a peak. For Cowen, the current configuration suggests an imminent end of cycle, marked by a rise in tension of risk indicators.

Here are the key elements noted by the analyst to support this hypothesis:

• An expected test of the bullish support: the XRP could fall around $ 2.60 – $ 2.70, a historic support area before a cycle top;

• The XRP has drawn an upward reversal figure, although this is not yet reflected in its relative valuation;

• Stagnation against the BTC: its valuation in Satoshis remains unchanged since August 2021, specifies Cowen, highlighting a lack of dynamics against the market leader;

• A risk indicator on alert: Cowen Note repeated peaks of this technical data in zone 0.8–0.9, threshold from which previous rally failed;

• The proximity of a summit: if this level crosses 0.9 and reaches 1.0, this will most likely signal the top of the cycle, he warns.

This technical reading reveals an XRP market in potential overheating, where any excess optimism could precede a marked correction. For Cowen, timing is critical, and investors would do well to monitor these thresholds closely.

Between domination of Bitcoin and a post-cycle scenario

Beyond the technical thresholds, Benjamin Cowen widens his reading to the macroeconomic environment on the crypto market. According to him, September could trigger a change. “September often marks a rise in the domination of the bitcoin”he warned.

This dynamic, already observed in the past, tends to cause a rotation of the liquidity of altcoins to Bitcoin, de facto weakening the relative performance of cryptos as the XRP in the short term.

In addition, improving the relative force of the XRP this year. Cowen recognizes that this time the crypto has managed to register “HIGHER HIGHS”higher peaks than in 2020–2021, a positive signal.

However, it remains cautious. According to him, running after too ambitious price goals at the end of the cycle would be risky. “If the risk indicator does not reach extreme levels by the end of the year, it is likely that it does not do it at all during this cycle,” he said. In other words, the bullish potential would then already be running out.

In the longer term, Cowen insists on a principle often neglected by private investors: the real performance of altcoins is measured in Satoshis, and not in dollars. He recalls that most Altcoins end up bleeding against the BTC, regardless of their volatility in USD. This approach invites you to put into perspective the raw gains displayed by certain assets. As a perspective, Cowen estimates that a krach of 60 to 80 % similar to those of the previous cycles could occur around 2026, once the top of the cycle has reached.

The analysis of Benjamin Cowen offers a prudent and supported reading of the behavior of the XRP, far from the sometimes excessive enthusiasm that we observe during the bullish period. It recalls the importance of managing its expectations, but also of considering technical and structural indicators often ignored. Is a return to $ 4 still possible?