While the American stock market indices break new records, palpable tension persists behind the scenes of the world market. The recent embellishment carried by a trade agreement between Washington and Hanoi does not erase uncertainties: blurred monetary policy, persistent price threats, slowdown in employment … Investors dance on a tense thread between hope and disillusionment.
In short
- The stock markets are reaching heights, but the economy sends contradictory signals.
- Trump blows hot and cold with a strategic commercial agreement and persistent tariff pressure.
- The dollar is weakening, gold and bitcoin benefit from increasing instability.
Calm on the surface, an underlying tumult
On Wednesday, the markets briefly found a smile. The S&P 500 closed to a historic summit of 6,277 points, the Nasdaq flew by 0.94 %, while Apple and Tesla set the tone with solid performance. Apparently, everything is fine.
But this bounce of the scholarship hides diffuse nervousness. The euphoria was fed by A surprise agreement between the United States and Vietnamconsidered as an encouraging signal for the next commercial negotiations. Donald Trump plays on the wire: by announcing this deal a few days from July 9: fateful date for the imposition of new prices. It blows hot and cold, nourishing the hope of a compromise while maintaining the pressure.
In parallel, the employment figures surprised … negatively. The ADP report Reveals a loss of 33,000 positions in the private sector in June, where analysts were tabling on +98,000. This coldness of the job market revives expectations of a monetary relaxation. The Fed is thus trapped between a market which requires a buoy and an inflation still capricious
Trump, chaos craftsman or timing strategist?
Donald Trump has lost none of his ability to polarize the markets. As July 4 approaches, he pushed his “One Big Beautiful Bill”: a massive budget bill, while triggering a new tariff offensive. The agreement with Vietnam, although greeted by Wall Street, seems to be a tactical counterweight more than a diplomatic turn.
This double game sets up a schizophrenic climate: investors want to believe in the found stability, but each tweet or voting in the congress can trigger a shock wave on the stock market. The republican factions divided on the text of tax law further weaken the prospect of a rapid vote. And Powell, president of the Fed, sees his maneuvering space is reduced to sorrow.
The dollar, for its part, continues to pitch. Weakened by upcoming budget deficits and pricing uncertainties, He retreats to the main currencies. The bond markets, on the other hand, now anticipate with more than 20 % probability two rate reductions by September. A dynamic that betrays the extent of underlying stress.
Leak towards quality: gold shines, the dollar crosses
Faced with this explosive cocktail: uncertain growth, abyssal deficit, trade tensions, investors readjust their bets. Gold, a real thermometer of economic anxiety, has appreciated 27 % since January. Bitcoin, too, finds its vigor, carried by an increasing distrust of Fiat currencies.
The table is paradoxical. The scholarship climbs, of course, but it is a prudent, suspicious ascent. A misstep, and everything can switch. Powell, under pressure, is now points to Trump's pricing policy, accusing him of blocking any room for maneuver on interest rates. In this unstable environment, a feeling dominates: that of a stay. The calm of the clues is that of an edited volcano.
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