Recently, Bitcoin resumed his favorite game: the emotional yo-yo. During, then after the “12 -day war” between Israel and Iran, its course twirled. Since then, calm has established itself. The market enters the consolidation phase, and the queen of cryptos shows less brilliant signs. Activity at half mast, interest in slow motion: indicators send contrasting messages. We scrutinize the screens, but the magic fades … for now.
In short
- Bitcoin loses 32 % volume of transfers, a sign of a net decline in network activity.
- No revival of the spot volume despite the recent increase, strengthening doubts about its solidity.
- The US dollar falls sharply, fueling the hopes of a new momentum for Bitcoin soon.
- Handy figures appear, including a flag bull already validated fifteen times in the history.
Less noise on the chain: Bitcoin becomes discreet on the network
Bitcoin news: since the end of May, the transfer volume fell from $ 76 to 52 billion. Either A net drop of 32 %. This metric, which measures transactional activity, shows that investors are raising their foot. A similar cooling had already marked the previous consolidations. Each time, The scheme is repeated: transfer peak, then return to normal. Logic seems cyclical.
Even more disturbing: this time, No REGAIN OF SPOT volume did not accompany the recent increase in BTC. For Glassnodethis divergence accentuates thelack of speculative intensity. Clear, Few classic traders have participated.
It is the derivative marketwith its excessive levers, which carried the movement. But when the vapor dissipates, the leverages become explosive.
A other data Strengthen the table: the gradual withdrawal of volumes on term contracts. We are talking about a general decline, which aligns with the slowdown in the whole crypto sector. A known, but feared mechanism.
Powell, low dollar and bullish figures: the underside of a BTC ready for takeoff?
If Bitcoin seems to take a break, it may be just a step back to jump better. First, the Macro context Give wings to non -sovereign assets. The US dollar loses 12 % Since January, its lowest level in 3 years. Morgan Stanley anticipates an additional fall of 9 %. Trump criticizes Powell and wants new blood at the Fed. Result: the Speculation of a monetary turnaround swollen. Less rates, more liquidity, therefore … breath for bitcoin.
Technically, Signals become intriguing. The course of the BTC remains above its exponential mobile average at 100 days, a solid defensive base. Better still, a “Bull Flag” took shape on the graphics. According to historical data, this type of configuration appeared 19 times. In 15 cases, it preceded a price climb.
Some figures to set the decor:
- $ 52 billion in transfer volume, down 32 %;
- $ 107,393: Last peak reached this week;
- -12 % on the Dxy since January;
- 15/19 cases of Bull Flag finish with an increase;
- No spot volume peak accompanied the rally.
For some, this calm announces the start of a more mature cycle. For others, it is calm before the storm.
Analysts are clear: the trend is accelerating. They now see Bitcoin aiming a summit never seen. This dynamic, coupled with a changing macro context, could well redesign the vertices of the Crypto market. Patience. The springboard may already be installed.
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