US markets explode … and Bitcoin could follow

Wall Street continues records, and the crypto retains its breath. While the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are changing to historical peaks, the possibility of a monetary easing of the Fed revives the Haussiers scenarios. In this climate of optimism, the question arises: is Bitcoin ready to cross a new symbolic threshold? With favorable macroeconomic signals and a renewed institutional interest, the hypothesis of a BTC beyond the $ 112,000 resurfaces, carried by the dynamics of traditional markets.

Wall Street Flambe: term markets in record territory

Last Thursday, the American stock market indices crossed historic heights, which fueled the euphoria of investors. The term contracts on the S&P 500 have reached a new peak at 6,145 points, surpassing their previous February summit, while the future on the Nasdaq Composite climbed up to 20,180 points.

This movement marks an impressive increase in the S&P 500, up 23 % since its fall of April 8. “Futures of American actions are approaching historical heights, carried by geopolitical appeasement and expectations of drop in rates by the Fed,” said declared Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research.

Several key factors explain this upward dynamic of the term markets:

• Geopolitical lull: the ceasefire between Israel and Iran seems to hold, reducing the level of geostrategic uncertainty;

• Reassuring monetary signals: investors interpret the Fed declarations as a possible opening to a drop in rates in July, according to Yahoo Finance
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• Relaxation on trade tensions: the fear of a hardening of customs policies seems to have diminished.

• A renewed general confidence: traders gradually regain risky assets, carried by a macroeconomic context perceived as more favorable.

These elements create land conducive to risk taking on all asset classes, including cryptos. If the traditional markets actually set the tone, the eyes are now turning to Bitcoin, on the lookout for a new rocking point.

Bitcoin to the test of resistance: towards a new phase of discovery?

Despite the favorable climate established by traditional markets, Bitcoin still struggles to cross a decisive course. Three occasions this week, the crypto failed to break the $ 108,000 mark, before retreating Thursday evening around 107,400 dollars.

Markus Thielen, director of research at 10x Research, underlines that “Many traders have sold covered purchase options (Covered Calls) against their BTC positions, which limits price dynamics and volatility”. This technical pressure, resulting from defensive coverage strategies, therefore acts as a temporary brake on the upward thrust of the market.

However, some observers believe that the fundamentals remain solid. Jeff Mei, director of operations at the BTSE Exchange, considers that “The conditions are met so that Bitcoin exceeds its previous summit of around $ 112,000, especially now that the Iran-Israel conflict seems behind us”.

For his part, Arthur Hayes, founder of Bitmex, said on X that “The highest historical people arrive”. In particular, it evokes the progression of discussions around a regulation of stablecoins in the United States as a catalyst factor.

In this context, if the Fed had to initiate a monetary turning point this summer, institutional flows could resume more, engaging a new phase of Bitcoin price discovery.

With PCE inflation stabilized at 2.3 %, the market now has an additional signal which could consolidate the federal reserve in its rate of drop in rates this summer. This figure further feeds the optimism of investors, both on traditional markets and on the side of cryptos. For Bitcoin, this context of monetary relaxation, combined with a more favorable regulatory and geopolitical dynamic, could create the conditions for decisive crossing beyond $ 112,000. If the current resistance gives way, the market may well enter a new phase of price discovery, with all the uncertainties, but also the opportunities that this implies.