Bitcoin targets $ 110,000 while $ 20 billion in options expired on June 27

On the eve of an expiration of extraordinary options estimated at $ 20 billion, the crypto market holds its breath. With a bitcoin around 107,800 dollars, each price movement becomes a battle between buyers and sellers. In this strategic duel, billions are at stake. The outcome will depend on the capacity of buyers to lock key levels before the outcome. Maximum pressure settles, as the fateful deadline approaches.

Bitcoin options place buyers in pole position

As the monthly expiration of June 27 approaches, the positions open on the Bitcoin options market reach an exceptional level of $ 20 billion while the flagship crypto rebounds after the ceasefire. Indeed, the purchase options dominate with $ 11.2 billion, compared to 8.8 billion for sales options.

This technical imbalance clearly gives the advantage to buyers, in particular because a large majority of sales options, $ 7.1 billion, are positioned on levels of less than 101,000 dollars, therefore potentially worthless at maturity.

The dynamics have clearly moved to buyers. In this context, their strategic objective is simple: maintain the BTC over $ 106,000 to make the most of the situation.

This technical threshold is explained by the imbalances projected between long and short positions at maturity. Here is how the theoretical gains are distributed according to the price of the BTC:

• Between $ 100,000 and $ 101,500: $ 1.74 billion for buyers against $ 1.75 billion in sellers, an almost neutral result;
• Between $ 101,500 and $ 102,500: bullish advantage of $ 235 million;
• Between $ 102,500 and $ 104,500: bullish advantage of $ 750 million;
• Between $ 104,500 and $ 106,000: bullish advantage of $ 1.41 billion;
• Between $ 106,000 and $ 108,000: bullish advantage of $ 2.1 billion, the most favorable area for buyers.

For sellers, forcing the BTC to close under 101,500 dollars would be their only chance to contain the losses. Otherwise, bullish investors could secure massive profits, but also install a solid technical base to target $ 110,000 in July.

A favorable macroeconomic context: FED, equity markets and appetite for risk

Beyond internal mechanics to the derivative market, recent macroeconomic signals offer a promising context to buyers. During his half -yearly testimony before the Commission of Financial Services of the House of Representatives, Jerome Powell A declared that “Several trajectories are possible” concerning interest rates, including “A decrease earlier than expected” If inflation remains moderate.

This change in tone, considered more flexible, is reinforced by the comments of other Fed officials, notably Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who anticipate potential declines from the July meeting.

In parallel, the S&P 500 has reached a summit, translating a revival of investor confidence for risky assets. In this context, some observers already see a redistribution of allowances: state obligations to asset classes such as Bitcoin, often considered as coverage against inflation or as an unreasonable growth asset.

This potential rotation is reinforced by modest growth forecasts (+5 %) for income from companies in S&P 500 this year, encouraging certain managers to seek yields elsewhere. Even without a new injection of liquidity by central banks, the decline in bond yields may be enough to support the bruising trajectory of the BTC in the medium term.

In the short term, if Bitcoin retains its position above $ 106,000 during the expiration of June 27, buyers could draw an immediate financial advantage, but also root a favorable psychological dynamic. In the medium term, the evolution of monetary policies, flows to Bitcoin ETF and international geopolitical climate will remain key variables to monitor. The foundations of a new bullish impetus seem to be combined. It remains to be seen if the market will be able to seize it.