While the world is entering a new zone of turbulence, between war in the Middle East, outbreak of energy prices and monetary uncertainty, an anomaly persists: bitcoin does not decrease. He climbs. It is a striking paradox in a climate where traditional active ingredients vacillate. Should we see a new proof of his moult in refuge? Or an illusion of stability fueled by market euphoria?
In short
- Bitcoin continues to climb despite war and inflation,
- Massive entries in ETFs and the stability of derivative products show solid confidence in traders.
- But between geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about rates, balance remains fragile.
Bitcoin rises where the markets fear the worst
In full rise in tensions between major powers, with Iran in sight and the oil that gets carried away, Bitcoin crossed the $ 108,000 on Monday. It is not a simple technical rebound: it is a reaction against the current of a globally worried market. Where the stock market indices pitch, the BTC traces its route. For what ?
The answer comes in part from the massive flows to the cash flows in cash: $ 301.7 million on Friday, more than 1 billion announced Monday by Strategy. It is not the small carrier that pushes: it is the institutional. In other words, those who have the most to lose in time of crisis continue to accumulate.
Add to that a bonus on 5 % term contracts and a market for the options that calms down (Delta that has fallen to 1 %), and you get a clear signal: the market is not panicked. He believes in it as reported Cointelegraph.
ETF, derivatives and oil: a balance as fragile as it is audacious
This apparent calm, however, masks a more complex reality. Oil, doped by tensions in the Middle East, could relaunch the inflationary spiral. And who says inflation says high interest rate maintained longer. This could put pressure on all assets … including Bitcoin.
And yet, confidence remains intact. Is it a rational strategy, or a risky bet? For Philippe Gijselsfrom BNP Paribas Fortis, prudence is in order: “The reaction of the market was very modest, so there is enough to be disappointed if the situation should degenerate”. Bitcoin, approaching its peaks, flirts with an excess of optimism in a world that is not.
Bitcoin is only 4 % of its historic record in May. A symbolic level. If he crosses it, he could lead to a wave of bullish Fomo. But nothing is guaranteed in this unstable geopolitical context. The slightest shock, on rates, on energy prices, or on the commercial front with China, could reverse the steam.
Ed Yardeni, experienced expert, recalls that The trade war initiated by Trump could resurface. And if the continues to rise, Bitcoin could discover that its current stability is just a mirage.
This is not the first time that Bitcoin has been going through a storm. But this time, it is advancing almost against the logic of traditional markets.
Is this the start of a new digital refuge value status? Or the euphoria of a market that refuses to see black clouds on the horizon? One thing is certain: the traders have made their choice. And for the moment, they are betting on Bitcoin like El Salvador.
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