Bitcoin investors strengthen their long positions before the Fed decision

A few hours before a key decision of the federal reserve, traditional markets freeze. Between the current, the crypto market comes alive. While Wall Street retains its breath, Bitcoin traders intensify their long positions, and bet on a favorable scenario. This agitation goes beyond the simple technical bet. It reflects an offensive strategy in a context of monetary uncertainty. While the Fed is about to decide on its rates, the crypto market already seems to have taken a position, ready to capitalize on the slightest inflection of economic discourse.

The bull bet before the verdict

Since May 6, the Bitcoin market has shown clear signs of strategic accumulation with the approach of the decision of the American federal reserve. Its price stabilized around $ 96,800, a level identified as a support area by several analysts.

Axel Adler Jr., specialist in derivative markets, has observed this May 6, 2025 on the social network X (formerly Twitter) the emergence of a “Haussier cluster of long positions” On this threshold, recalling a similar movement which occurred at the end of April, which had then propelled Bitcoin up to $ 97,500.

This concentration of positions testifies to a manifest will of leverage investors to take a stand before the Fed decided on the level of interest rates.

Such positioning is accompanied by technical indicators in clear progression, which underline the intensity of the bullish engagement. Here are some important data:

• Open interest on Bitcoin term contracts jumped 2,000 BTC, which represents an injection of $ 189 million in a few hours;
• The aggregate volume of transactions increased by 15 %, a clear sign of sustained purchase pressure despite a slight decline in the price;
• The financing rate has remained generally neutral over the last hours, but reached a temporary peak of 0.018 %, which suggests occasional outbreaks of optimism in leverage traders.

Analyst Michaël Van de Poppe, founder of Velomn Capital, also sees in this rebound a positive signal for the days to come. He declared May 6 on X: “I think we are going to continue the upward movement on Bitcoin. The key factor here is to see if gold is starting to correct after the FOMC meeting tomorrow, which would indicate the start of the economic cycle ”.

This configuration clearly shows that bitcoin bull's bitcoin investors are not content to anticipate a decision, but they are already playing the rest of the macroeconomic scenario.

The Fed, catalyst for programmed volatility?

Beyond recent technical movements, it is the history of the correlation between the decisions of the Fed and the behavior of the Bitcoin which attracts the attention of analysts. According to Swissblock, a firm specializing in cryptos management, the Bitcoin momentum systematically slows down in the days preceding a monetary policy decision, before becoming extremely volatile just after.

In an analysis published On X, the cabinet shows that this effect is recurrent:

In the last five Fed meetings, the Bitcoin price stagnated or dropped slightly before the publication, then recorded high volatility within 48 hours.

THE RATE OF CHANGE (ROC) Over 25 days, an indicator followed by Swissblock, is currently in a bullish phase, which suggests a possible positive impulse for the BTC, provided that the speech of Jerome Powell does not cool the ardor of the market.

This type of configuration increases the importance of timing For operators. Thus, this reflects a certain structural hesitation, typical of periods when macroeconomic algorithmic models adjust according to the tone of institutions. More than a possible variation in rates, it is therefore the tone used by Jerome Powell during his press conference which will be scrutinized.

A speech deemed too cautious could suffocate the momentum observed on Bitcoin, while a message of stability or economic resilience could on the contrary serve as a springboard for a new bullish impetus.

In this context, the news around the Fed goes beyond its direct impact on the price of the crypto. It acts as revealing of an increasing dependence of these assets with traditional macroeconomic cycles. This meeting of this day could thus influence the immediate trajectory of the BTC, but also redefine, in part, the way in which investors perceive decorrelation between Crypto and Classic Finance. The next few days are therefore decisive, at the crossroads of speculative dynamics and monetary fundamentals.