The United States has just prohibited Nvidia from exporting its h20 chips to China, causing a shock wave on the markets. This decision leads to a colossal loss of $ 5.5 billion for the American technological giant. With Trump, we are witnessing a trade war to a total economic war between the United States and China.
In short
- The United States prohibits the export of NVIDIA H20 fleas to China, causing a loss of $ 5.5 billion for the company.
- This decision marks a new escalation in a technological war centered on the domination of artificial intelligence.
- This crisis could be deeper than that of 2008, questioning the supremacy of the dollar.
- A global economic decoupling is looming with the creation of two distinct technological blocks: USA vs China.
Nvidia collapses following Trump's decisions
On Tuesday April 15, Nvidia announced a Exceptional load of $ 5.5 billion Linked to the ban on exporting H20 chips to China. This decision by the United States government represents much more than just financial loss for the company. It symbolizes a radical hardening of the American position against Beijing.
Following this announcement, the NVIDIA title fell 6 %, causing in its wake the entire NASDAQ which lost 2 % even before the opening of the markets. This reaction illustrates the strategic importance of this company, considered as the technological flagship of 2024 with exceptional stock market performance so far.
This restriction is not trivial. Previously, Nvidia could export less powerful chips to China, while the most advanced were reserved for the American market and its allies. Now the US government requires without delay a compulsory license For any chip export to China, including those specifically designed to bypass the previous restrictions.
Trump declares technological war
What started with customs duties under the Trump administration is now evolving towards a strategic technological confrontation. The United States is no longer content to tax Chinese products, it is now trying to block access from China to the Battle for domination in AIconsidered the next industrial revolution.
The emergence of Deepseek This year has marked the spirits. This Chinese start-up has, with few means, made considerable advances in artificial intelligence, shaking American confidence. This event, followed by a first collapse of Nvidia, can be considered the trigger for the start of this stock market crisis.
The American administration, advised by Elon Musk, justifies its strategy by the need to Preserve its technological superiority Faced with a competitor perceived as a threat. By this ban, Washington tries to maintain a decisive advance in the field of AI by depriving its rival of the components essential to its technological development.
To a multipolar world
We are witnessing the emergence of a deep decoupling between two superpowers which goes far beyond the Nvidia case. This phenomenon is already observable with Huawei, whose products are prohibited in the United States for reasons of national security.
This decoupling implies a duplication of production chains, standards and infrastructure. Ultimately, countries may be forced to choose their camp according to the principle “Either you are with us or you are against us”. A philosophy that recalls the rhetoric of the Bush era post-11 September.
The consequences for the global economy are considerable. Consumers may pay more for their products due to this duplication of production systems. Innovation could also slow down, and business margins decrease. Some analysts do not hesitate to talk about the End of globalization as we have known it, for the benefit of a world organized in Two closed geopolitical blocks.
Trump upset the markets
This new geopolitical reality leads to a profound questioning of stock market valuations. Traditionally, Tech and Nvidia companies are assessed on their anticipated future benefits. The closure of the Chinese market now requires a Down lower revision of profits expected for many companies.
The impact extends far beyond the technological sector. LVMH also undergoes a sharp decline, a sign that the markets anticipate an overall economic slowdown linked to this fragmentation. Despite the low points recently reached, the downward trend may persist as long as the market has not fully integrated this new deal.
Unlike the 2008 crisis, focused on the financial sector, we face a systemic crisis which questions the very foundations of the global economy. THE Unprecedented shock for markets could last much longer than a simple technical crash, with temporary rebounds in a generally negative trend.
Towards the end of the dollar?
Beyond the equity markets, this Sino-American confrontation could have repercussions on the supremacy of the dollar as a global reference currency. Traditionally, in times of uncertainty, investors turned to American obligations, considered as the active refuge par excellence.
For the first time, this dynamic seems to be questioned. American public debt no longer attracts investors, who are worried about its long -term sustainability. At the same time, China actively develops its digital yuan with the aim of competing with the domination of the dollar.
If American interest rates were to increase sharply due to a loss of confidence in the American debt, the burden of this debt would explode, potentially leading to a much more serious crisis than that which we currently know. The stake therefore goes far beyond the framework of a simple trade conflict.
In this context of global economic upheaval triggered by Trump, the Nvidia case appears as an alarm signal announcing deeper transformations. Prudence therefore remains in order for investors, even if opportunities can emerge in this new fragmented geopolitical landscape. Because beyond the markets, it is the place of the dollar that is disputed.
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