The United States is advancing ahead of a tense thread between economic patriotism and budgetary reality. As Donald Trump puts back his boxing gloves, the financial world stands up on his chair. It must be said that the “Liberation Day”, adorned with its new customs duties, looked more like a declaration of trade war than a celebration of economic independence. And in this din of figures and announcements, a question begins to be heard, slowly, but firmly: will the greatest economy in the world flank?
The announcement of new prices increases the risk of recession according to Polymarket
Since Trump's announcements, the spotlights have been on the immediate market reaction. Polymarket, alternative but revealing barometer of the psychological state of investors, posters From now on 50 % probability of recession. And this probability is not a simple figure thrown into the air: it reflects them deep concerns about the economic impact of this muscular customs policy.
For the Crypto market, this raises a burning question: can the Bull Run Bitcoin survive such a shock of macroeconomic trust?
Market rooms trembled. The Nasdaq retreated, Bitcoin has fogled. And while the refuge assets took over, a thrill traveled the gutting of investors.
America of protectionism has resurfacedmore assertive, more sharp.
Half a century earlier, Ronald Reagan started his presidency under the sign of an economic storm. A violent recession, followed by a spectacular recovery. In a video relayed by Bannon's War Room, Jim Rickards revives this memory:
The first two years of Reagan, we have known the worst recession since the Great Depression. The US economy came out with 16 % real growth.
The comparison is made, barely veiled. For Trump supporters, current economic chaos would be the prelude necessary to An equally historical rebound – And the pain, a forced passage to the Renaissance.
- 50 % probability of recession estimated by Polymarket;
- Prices deemed more aggressive than expected;
- Immediate impact on stock market indices and Bitcoin.
Goldman Sachs increases the risk of recession at 35 % due to trade tensions
On the institutions side, the tone is more felted, but the words do not deceive. Goldman Sachsrarely follower of alarmism, Remember his forecast for upward recession: 35 % risk In the next 12 months. A symbolic threshold, almost a mermaid.
Because if finance is starting to lose confidence, the rest of the economy could follow.
Bank economists brandish Three red signals Like so many evidence: real income that stagnates, consumption that flexes, and galloping inflation powered by trade tensions.
- Probability of recession increased to 35 %;
- Inflation forecasts at 3.5 % by the end of 2025;
- Consumption and income at half mast.
These data are not spectacular alone, but combined, they draw A much darker picture. In a country where consumption runs the economic machine, the slightest slowdown in the average basket can tip over balance.
And while the economic signals flash, some recall that The alert had been given long before. Victor Shi relays a declaration by Kamala Harris dating from September 2024:
What Goldman Sachs says is that the economy would be worse under Donald Trump.
And now, the bank increases its forecast of recession. For skeptics of the protectionist offer, the loop is complete. What some saw as a political prediction becomes, over the figures, a diagnosis.
Can American markets really avoid recession? This is the question that hovers, like a cloud that no one wants to name. Between intuitions of predictive platforms, warnings of business banks and electoral tensions, the climate is responsible for electricity. And in this unstable atmosphere, it will not take much to burst the storm.
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