A great thinker said that walking, we discover the path. With cryptocurrencies, nothing is ever frozen. The crypto market follows its own rules, often ephemeral, sometimes unpredictable. The certainties of yesterday become the doubts of today. Between geopolitical changes, economic cycles, technological breakthroughs and tweets that make Nasdaq tremble, everything can change … or remain desperately the same. But if the historical landmarks vacillate, can we still believe in the four-year cycle?
Halving Bitcoin: Down promises, upward stability?
THE Halving Bitcoin promises have long resonated as a prophecy in the world of crypto. Every four years, the minors' award is divided by two. This new rarity, supposed to support the price of the BTC, has often preceded a Bull Market.
But according to Sandeep Nailwalco -founder of Polygon, This model begins to run out of steam.
He says that ” Market corrections have become less brutalaround 30 to 40 % », Far from -90 % of the previous cycles. According to him, the rise in power of institutional actors And the maturation of the crypto market contributes to this stabilization.
We are less witnessing roller coaster and more with a winding path, dotted with soft slopes and unforeseen turns.
- Bitcoin's course drops less during the Bear phases;
- The Bull Markets are longer, but less explosive;
- ETF provides stability and visibility to BTC;
- The flows focus on the top of the cryptos basket.
Can we then talk about the end of the cycle or simply a changing cycle?
Is analysts debate: is the crypto cycle broken or just confused?
In some analysts, the 4 -year cycle still has great remains. The crypto.com platform recalls The four classic phases : accumulation, increase, distribution, fall. This diagram worked well on the past cycles of Bitcoin. However, voices rise to qualify. Analyst Miles Deutscher, for example, thinks that Bull Markets are now more spread out.
The accumulation does not always lead to an immediate rise.
He also notes that The flows first head for the BTC, then towards Ethereum, and finally to altcoins, Following an increasingly desynchronized rotation. This weakens the idea of a regular cycle.
Other experts evoke a crossroads. The Halving Bitcoin rally is no longer as mechanical as before. Several parameters blur the cards : persistent inflation, high interest rate, institutional adoption, financial derivatives. Even BTC dominance data show a stronger concentration of capital on a few active only.
From then on, the classic crypto cycle no longer seems so readable. But is it the natural evolution of a growing market or the sign of a deep disruption?
Perspectives: adapt its bearings to a mutation crypto market
It is clear that the Crypto market of 2025 is no longer that of 2013 or even 2017. The entry of institutional investors has changed the situation. Derivated products, such as Bitcoin ETF, now weigh heavy in price dynamics.
Collective euphoria has given way to Calculated prudence.
In addition, macroeconomic conditions do not facilitate the emergence of a classic Bull Market. The rates remain high, liquidity remains low, and the United States watches. Yet, volumes do not collapse. The BTC resists, anchored around 84,000 dollars in recent days. The Bear Market has not disappeared, but it seems less fierce.
On X, Miles Deutscher sums up this feeling well:
The cycle is not dead, it has become more vague.
Maybe that's it, the reality of Crypto Game today: a play of tracks where the beacons fade one by one.
- The Bitcoin ETFs drain more than $ 1 billion per week;
- BTC dominance is close to 54 %, a record since 2021.
The market changes, it's a fact. But how do you trace your course when the ancient models become obsolete? Analysts already agree that the Halving Bitcoin 2024 has not had the expected effect. According to a recent analysis, the expected increase in the BTC is slow to materialize. The classic scenario “Halving then Bull Run” runs out of steam. Investors must now think beyond cycles, based on a finer reading of economic data and market behavior.
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