The volatility of Bitcoin is again at the heart of the debates. While the crypto briefly plunged under $ 79,000, the Standard Bank Chartered estimates that the correction could intensify and bring the BTC back into a range between 69,000 and $ 76,500 by Monday. A projection which is based on several market indicators, including the selling pressure exerted by the massive outlets of Bitcoin ETF and the increase in short positions of the Hedge Funds. Should we see in this drop a simple correction or the signal of a deeper reversal?
Bitcoin ETF in turbulence zone
For several weeks, capital flows for Bitcoin ETF have experienced a clear slowdown. According to Geoffrey Kendrick, World Cryptos Research Manager at Standard Chartered, the cumulative net acquisitions of Bitcoin ETF have reached $ 2.5 billion since the American presidential election. A dynamic that could continue to weigh on the short -term market.
Recent figures confirm this downward trend. On Tuesday, the market recorded more than a billion dollars in ETF redemptions in a single day, a particularly high volume which testifies to a progressive disengagement from institutional investors. “ETF investors remain widely exposed. But if they start to panic and liquidate their positions, the selling pressure could increase ”, warn Kendrick. A hypothesis which seems to be confirmed with the drop in the BTC under the $ 80,000, a level which had hitherto served as a key psychological threshold.
In parallel, the dynamics of hedge funds fuel this correction. Short positions on Bitcoin, in other words, downwards down to the hedge funds, have increased by 43 % since November, and increased from $ 11.3 billion to CFTC data. A configuration that reflects the anticipation of a lower market on the part of the most aggressive investors.
Towards a rehearsal of the 2024 scenario?
Beyond ETF movements and hedge fund strategies, some observers draw a parallel with August 2024, when Bitcoin had a brutal correction of $ 70,000 to $ 50,000 in a week. According to Kendrick, several similarities exist with the current situation. In addition, “if the market configuration remains the same, a new fall of 5.5 % would bring us into the range of 69,000 to 76,500 dollars,” he said.
Another factor to monitor is the evolution of the macroeconomic and political context. With the rise in economic tensions in the United States, especially around the new tariff measures announced by Donald Trump, all risky assets, including Bitcoin, could be impacted. Uncertainty around monetary policies and the next decisions of the Federal Reserve could also accentuate volatility on the markets.
In this context, two scenarios are emerging: either a rapid stabilization if buyers are massively positioned on the identified media, or a new wave of cascading sales if fear is installed and pushes investors to liquidate more positions. The next market sessions will therefore be decisive to assess whether this withdrawal is an opportunity to purchase or the prelude to a deeper movement of correction.
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