The European authorities are not very favorable to bitcoin, it is nothing to say, but the German election could change the situation.
The Germans punish Olaf Scholz
The result of the German election was eagerly awaited given the economic difficulties caused by the decision to do without Russian gas.
Initially scheduled for September 28, 2025, the election was advanced due to the collapse of the government coalition overseen by the Greens, SPD socialists and the Liberals of the Petit Party of the FDP.
This time, it was the traditional CDU/CSU center-right alliance that won, followed by the alternative party Für Deutschland (AFD), equivalent to the National Rally in France.
While the outgoing Chancellor's party Olaf Scholz (SPD) won 206 seats in 2021, it only has 120. Conversely, AFD goes from 83 to 152 seats. The CDU/CSU comes first with 208 seats.
In the German federal electoral system, a single party or parliamentary group rarely wins the absolute majority in the Bundestag. The CDU/CSU only obtained 28.5 % of the seats, so that Germany will have to deal with a coalition government again.
In view of the results, the exercise will be difficult because of the “Brandmauer”: the promise of traditional parties not to form a coalition with AFD. It is therefore necessary to expect many weeks, even several months of political bargain.
A pro Bitcoin coalition?
Bitcoin was one of the stumbling blocks of the coalition of Olaf Scholz. President of the Liberal FDP party, Christian Lindner, strongly criticized the chancellor for having sold over 50,000 bitcoins last summer at the average price of $ 57,600, while a tidal wave seems imminent on the market.
The FDP defends a policy similar to that of the United States. Unfortunately, with less than 5 %, the FDP will be absent from the next Bundestag. On the other hand, with almost 21 % of the seats, the AFD could have its say, which is potentially auspicious for Bitcoin.
AFD supports non-murderous regulations, the end of the capital gains tax and opposes CBDC. Knowing that German legislation is already much more favorable than in France since having its bitcoins more than a year avoids the tax.
Given Elon Musk's displayed support for AFD, it is a safe bet that his position vis-à-vis Bitcoin will be modeled on that of the United States. Knowing that Washington has in store for us on this side.
It is rumored that the government of Donald Trump will create a national bitcoin reserve while abolishing the tax on capital gains. And that after having already authorized banks to hold bitcoins on behalf of their customers.
Another sign that does not deceive, most members of the Trump government have bitcoins. What do they know that we don't know …
Who will be the next chancellor?
Friedrich Merz, a former business lawyer and a multimillionaire banker. His visit to BlackRock is encouraging since the giant investment fund is extremely favorable to Bitcoin. His belonging to the board of trustees of the World Economic Forum is less exciting.
Everything will depend on the colors of the government coalition. Mr. Merz did not fail to trigger controversy two weeks ago after relying on AFD to pass immigration restrictions. Hundreds of thousands of people went down to the street to protest.
And although he has promised not to form a coalition with AFD, less than half of German voters believe in it according to The Economist. Indeed, allying with the SPD already seems out of the question.
The second option would be to make a large coalition that could be fragile. Mr. Merz hopes to finish negotiations by Easter (April 20). The third option would be to assume an alliance with AFD.
After all, Mr. Merz said he could imagine working in close collaboration with Giorgia Meloni who is very right of the political spectrum. Not to mention the United States that will put pressure in favor of AFD.
By what things are deciding, all eyes turn to Washington and its Bitcoins Strategic Reserve. How could Europe remain ballant arms if the Americans kiss Bitcoin?
On the French side, things remain in a standstill, to remain polite. Our article on the subject: Bitcoin: France is ridiculed a little more
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