Since his last rebound, Bitcoin has been evolving in a consolidation phase for two weeks. Find Elyfe's analysis to decipher the technical perspectives of the BTC.
Bitcoin course situation (BTC)
After diving towards the support of $ 91,350, the Bitcoin price benefited from a buyer interest, allowing it to rebound and reintegrate the $ 100,000. Unfortunately, the cryptocurrency failed to cross this threshold and suffered a decrease in its course, before starting a consolidation phase in the form of a range between $ 98,000 and $ 94,000. Thus, Bitcoin seems to be in a situation of indecision for two weeks now.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is negotiated around $ 96,000. It is closer to the lower part of its range and is located in a significant value area, just below the annual VWAP and its 50 -day mobile average, located at the same level as its monthly pivot point, at 100 $ 335. Although the BTC course stabilizes, the short -term trend remains down. Nevertheless, the medium and long term trends remain upwards.
On the side of the bullish dynamic of Bitcoin, we observe that it was revised downwards, but that it continues to stabilize, letting envisage a more important movement to come. This is reflected both in its price and in its oscillators.
Current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elyfeinvestor and popularizer in the cryptocurrency market.
Zoom on derivatives (BTC/USDT)
In the past few weeks, we have observed a simultaneous drop in open interest and the underlying course, indicating a gradual outing of positions on the market. However, for two weeks, this trend seems to have stabilized.
Open interest no longer decreases significantly, which suggests market consolidation. This tray can be interpreted as a sign that market players await a catalyst before resuming more active positions.
Although signs of emerging stabilization, the CVD continues to reflect a persistent downward trend. This reflects a predominance of selling orders, but with pressure which gradually tends to fade. This dynamic suggests a slowdown in the aggressiveness of the sellers, which could announce a shortness of breath. A continuation of this stabilization, or even a reversal of the CVD, could point out a rebalancing between buyers and sellers, even a change of trend.
Since the last bitcoin correction, liquidations have remained limited on both sides of the market, without significant movements either for buyers or for sellers. This situation reflects a stable market, contained volatility and prudent risk management. However, this balance is temporary. A resumption of volatility remains likely, in particular in the event of a sudden increase in volumes or the appearance of an external catalyst.
The thermal card of liquidations of BTC/USDT perpetual contracts reveals that Bitcoin is currently evolving between major liquidation zones:
- Above, a first liquidation zone is identified around $ 100,000, followed by a level at $ 103,000, then a larger area between $ 107,000 and $ 111,000.
- Below, a notable concentration of orders appears around $ 93,000, with a second level of liquidation well defined around $ 88,000.
These thresholds represent critical inflection points for the market. An approach to the price to these levels could lead to massive activations of liquidation orders, amplifying volatility and triggering marked directional movements.
Forecasts for the Bitcoin course (BTC)
- If Bitcoin manages to maintain itself above $ 94,000, a recovery could allow it to cross $ 100,335, thus opening the way to $ 102,500. Overcoming this threshold could then promote a return to $ 106,000, then to its ATH at $ 109,354, an increase of approximately 12 %.
- Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to maintain itself above $ 94,000, it could find a support around $ 92,800. A prolonged drop would then bring back its course to the support of $ 91,300. Finally, the break of this level could lead to a new fall towards the 89,000 zone or more and more, representing a drop of approximately 8 %.
Conclusion
Bitcoin evolves in a phase of indecision after an interrupted rebound, stabilizing in a narrow range. Despite a short -term downward trend, the background dynamic remains intact. The market seems to await a catalyst, and an exit from this consolidation could lead to a more marked movement. In this context, it will be essential to closely monitor the reaction of prices at strategic levels in order to confirm or adjust current forecasts.
Finally, remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria, and that the course of cryptocurrencies can evolve quickly according to other more fundamental factors.
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