Bitcoin's movements punctuate the markets, between phases of euphoria and brutal corrections. After a record high of $108,268 in December 2024, the crypto is going through a period of consolidation. However, a major technical indicator, the 52-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), is fueling speculation. According to analyst Dave the Wave, Bitcoin could reach a new high by July 2025, a pattern already seen in previous bull cycles. Therefore, if this forecast is confirmed, it would mark a key stage in the current cycle. However, market developments remain uncertain, between technical signals and external factors likely to influence the price trajectory.
Technical Indicator Suggests Imminent Top
Since its record high of $108,268 reached on December 17, 2024, bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase. After a rapid rise, the crypto lost 14% from its peak, a decline considered classic after a major surge. Despite this correction, several observers believe that the bullish cycle remains intact, because they rely on historical models to anticipate the future of the market.
Among them, Dave the Wave highlights the importance of the 52-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) in peak detection. “Bitcoin has historically peaked when the one-year moving average touched the midpoint of the Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) channel,” he said. explain on the platform , and in 2021, it was reached several months later.
If this pattern repeats, bitcoin could peak around July 2025, when the annual moving average is expected to cross the LGC channel median. However, some experts put this projection into perspective. The bitcoin market is now operating in a different context, marked by growing institutional adoption and stricter regulations. These factors could alter traditional dynamics and call into question the reliability of historical models.
A correction in progress: end of the break or warning signal?
Rekt Capital's analysis offers a complementary perspective on current market developments. According to him, bitcoin is going through a classic phase of price discovery, generally observed between the sixth and eighth weeks after a significant surge. “Such a correction has lasted for four weeks, suggesting that it is nearing its end,” he said. declared on X, January 11, 2025. This vision is shared by Axel Adler Jr., who underlines in a January 13 publication on the social network
However, this optimism is not unanimous. Peter Brandt warns of a potential “head and shoulders” formation on the daily chart, a bearish pattern well known to technical analysts. If this configuration is validated, bitcoin could slide below $77,000, a level which could call into question the current bullish dynamic. “The market must confirm or invalidate this pattern, but investors must consider several scenarios,” warns-he in an analysis published on January 12, 2025 on X. This uncertainty reinforces the idea that the situation remains fragile and that bitcoin is evolving at a pivotal point. A rebound could restart the upward trend, but a downward crossing of critical thresholds could signal a change in cycle.
Investors are closely monitoring liquidity levels to anticipate bitcoin's next moves. Currently, massive buy orders are positioned between $85,000 and $92,000 on Binance. This suggests that this area could serve as key support in the event of further declines. Conversely, a high volume of sell orders is concentrated around $110,000, making it a potential target for an upcoming rally. If technical analysis indicates a continuation of the upward trend, several uncertainties remain. Market developments could be influenced by macroeconomic factors, intervention by regulators or even greater institutional adoption. For now, the one-year moving average and log channel remain essential benchmarks. It remains to be seen whether 2025 will follow the patterns of previous cycles or mark an unprecedented change in the history of bitcoin.
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