Bitcoin is reaching new highs, and is now flirting with the $79,000 mark, a feat largely driven by the announcement of Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections. In a context of high volatility, where institutional players and analysts are sharpening their projections, the famous stock-to-flow model of analyst PlanB now predicts a potential surge in the price of Bitcoin up to $500,000 by next four-year cycle. This renewed institutional interest, supported by favorable political initiatives, promises to shake up the crypto market.
The Trump Effect and the Foundations of Bitcoin's Rise
Bitcoin recorded a significant increase following the re-election of Donald Trump, and reached $79,000 according to market data on November 10, 2024. Such a surge is directly linked to the enthusiasm caused by the stated intentions of the new American administration, in particular the idea of creating a national Bitcoin reserve. Analyst PlanB, known for his stock-to-flow model that projects the value of Bitcoin based on its scarcity and halving cycles, has declared : “if history repeats itself, and the stock-to-flow model continues to guide, we will see a skyrocketing price.” These comments resonate with the expectations of investors, who anticipate an institutional influx into the BTC market.
The proposal for a national reserve, already supported by influential voices like that of pro-Bitcoin senator Cynthia Lummis, could increase institutional buying pressure by 200,000 BTC per year. With the integration of Bitcoin into national reserves, the United States could set a new standard for digital stores of value, like gold reserves, thanks to the stimulation of unprecedented demand complemented by legitimacy state to the most capitalized crypto in the world.
The enthusiasm of institutional investors and PlanB’s forecasts
In addition to the direct impact of political announcements, analyst PlanB noted the growth prospects of Bitcoin beyond short-term speculation. He predicts an upward trajectory for BTC up to $500,000 in the next cycle. Thanks to the stock-to-flow model, which measures the value of Bitcoin through its scarcity and the effects of halvings, PlanB estimates a potential price range between $250,000 and $1,000,000 per unit. “Stock-to-flow is just a compass, but it has proven effective in the past,” he explained. Additionally, he highlighted that large investors like MicroStrategy continue to strengthen their BTC portfolios.
The entry of companies like MicroStrategy, which plans to acquire 200,000 BTC annually, could serve as a catalyst for the price to rise, via a steady flow of institutional capital. However, this movement also attracts criticism and concerns. Thus, some observers warn against the effects of excessive speculation and the risks of “spoofing” on order books, a practice which aims to artificially manipulate prices by adding and removing massive orders. This technique, although not regulated in crypto markets, could limit expected gains and create artificial price fluctuations.
The rise of Bitcoin to $79,000 and the ambitions of PlanB, supported by a favorable political context, illustrate a decisive phase for BTC. If the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve in the United States comes to fruition, it could redefine the foundations of the global digital economy. However, risks of market manipulation and lack of regulation remain major challenges.
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