Tension is rising in the Middle East as Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital sea route for global oil supplies. This geopolitical escalation could have major consequences on the global economy and the price of black gold.
The Strait of Hormuz, a hotspot under high tension
The already tense relations between Iran and Israel have deteriorated further recently. In response to a strike targeting its embassy in Damascus in early April, Tehran promised retaliation through its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In this context, the statements of Commander Alirez Tangsiri, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy, had the effect of a bombshell. He warned that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20 million barrels of oil pass daily.
This strategic passage, located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is a real choke point for global oil trade. According to numbers advanced by Tangsiri, more than 85 ships and tankers pass through this strait every day. Between January and September 2023, an average of 20.5 million barrels of crude, condensate and petroleum products passed through it daily.
This is not the first time that Iran has made this threat. Already in 2012, in the midst of a crisis surrounding its nuclear program, Tehran had discussed such an option. A way for the Iranian regime to influence the regional scene, even if a closure of Hormuz could prove to be a double-edged sword, disrupting energy markets while penalizing the Iranian economy itself.
Potentially devastating consequences
If Iran carried out its threat, the consequences could be dramatic. An interruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would cause a major oil shock, with a surge in the price of black gold. Iran itself, whose income depends heavily on oil exports, could see its economy destabilized.
However, Commander Tangsiri wanted to qualify his remarks during a television interview: “ If we wanted to, we could close this waterway, but we don't… It's because as long as we use this waterway and this strait, our neighbors should use it too. » A total and prolonged closure therefore seems unlikely at this stage.
However, the situation remains extremely tense. Israel's presence in the United Arab Emirates and airstrikes on the Iranian consulate in Syria are fueling Tehran's fears. The oil markets are therefore on alert, fearing an uncontrolled escalation.
In short, even if a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran seems unlikely given its potential cost for all parties, these new verbal threats illustrate the great nervousness currently reigning in the Middle East. In this context, vigilance remains essential for investors in the oil markets.
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