In a recent report, Matrixport estimates that Bitcoin could reach $63,000 by March 2024. If this optimistic scenario is confirmed, it would be a new all-time high for the crypto. Between halving, ETFs and the American presidential election, an overview of the factors likely to cause the price to take off.
Bitcoin, all the signals are green?
In its report, Matrixport highlights a constellation of so-called bullish signals for Bitcoin:
- The halving, a bullish classic
One of the elements put forward by Matrixport is the Bitcoin halving planned for this year. This mechanism by which the reward of miners is halved has historically had an upward effect on the price. By reducing inflation, halving reinforces the scarcity of Bitcoin and increases its value. However, with the crypto market now more mature, the exact impact of this event is difficult to predict.
- The spot ETF, an institutional adoption
Other factor highlighted : the upcoming arrival of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. Unlike current ETFs which use futures contracts, this one will directly replicate the price of Bitcoin. This novelty should attract institutional investors and strengthen demand for crypto. But again, it is difficult to precisely quantify its bullish effect on a mature market like that of Bitcoin.
- The election, a difficult element to anticipate
Finally, Matrixport mentions the next American presidential election as a possible bullish catalyst. Here again, it is perilous to anticipate the impact of such an event on the crypto market. An alternation in the White House could be favorable as well as vice versa. This political factor further adds to the difficulty of predicting price movements.
Very uncertain concrete effects in the crypto universe?
If economic theory dictates that these factors are bullish, their actual materialization is very uncertain.
The halving in a mature crypto market, the impact of a spot ETF on institutional investors already present, the risky bet of a drop in rates or even the vagaries of American politics: too many doubts remain. All this without taking into account the overlooked downside risks, such as galloping inflation or the threat of recession.
Ultimately, this prediction of Bitcoin at $63,000 seems completely disconnected from the current macroeconomic context. We are far from the euphoria of 2020-2021. The crypto environment today is much more uncertain. Rather than succumbing to these bullish sirens, it is better to keep a cool head.
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