Bitcoin closed last week above $52,000, a level it has not reached since the end of 2021. Let’s take a look at the future outlook for the BTC price.
Status of Bitcoin (BTC)
After surpassing its previous high at around $48,000, Bitcoin reached a new high around $52,000. It is at this price level that Bitcoin began a consolidation phase, forming a range. The peak of this phase is near $52,900, while the bottom is around $50,700. Importantly, this period of indecision coincides with when Bitcoin’s price on CME futures almost managed to fill the remainder of its bearish gap.
Bitcoin price is above its 50 and 200 day moving averages, which, from a technical point of view, confirms that the cryptocurrency is in an uptrend. On the oscillator side, they have largely rebounded above the median threshold and exceeded their previous high as highlighted in our analysis of January 13, 2024. However, it should be noted that these oscillators are reaching high levels, suggesting that the asset underlying could be overbought.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.
Focus on derivatives (BTCUSDT)
We can observe that the open interest in Bitcoin evolves in a similar way to its price. After rising, they stabilized, suggesting a balance between buying and selling on BTC/USDT perpetual contracts. The positive funding rate demonstrates that bullish conviction remains predominant. Regarding liquidations, there have not been any significant ones since crossing $49,000. This can demonstrate the stability that Bitcoin is currently experiencing.
The liquidation heatmap for BTC/USD over the past month indicates that the liquidation barrier around $51,300 was recently breached, sparking a notable increase in buying interest. At the moment, the most critical liquidation zone is above the current price, more precisely between $52,800 and $52,900. Below the current price, the $52,300 level also remains important. Moving further down, it is pertinent to highlight the area below $48,000. As the market approaches these levels, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore represent major points of interest for investors.
Hypotheses for the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
If the price of Bitcoin manages to stay above $50,600, we could anticipate a further increase to the threshold of $53,000. The next resistance to take into account, if the bullish movement continues, would be the psychological threshold of $55,000. At this stage, this would represent an increase close to + 6%.
If the price of Bitcoin fails to maintain above $50,600, we could envisage support for buying interest in the $48,000 zone. The next level to take into account, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $47,500 – 47,000. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to – 8%.
Conclusion
Bitcoin reached a new high before entering a consolidation phase, marking a moment of indecision and strategy review on the part of investors. For the moment, everything seems to indicate that the upward trend could continue. However, a possible significant downward movement could call this outlook into question. Thus, it seems that Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has resumed with vigor. However, after a period of intense volatility, it is common to see a phase of consolidation, or even correction. Thus, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or refute the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.
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