According to a crypto analyst, the price of BTC has generally fallen when breaking the 200-day SMA over the past 10 years. With a price of $28,680, the queen of cryptos is trading below the base price of STH for the third time in a row. Some analysts therefore predict the price of Bitcoin (BTC) to fall below the $20k mark. Others foresee rather the opposite movement.
Is a downtrend in sight?
The last ten years have shown that each time the price of BTC breaks the 200-day SMA, it drops to touch the realized price. According to crypto analyst James Straten, the realized price is currently $20,350. Right now, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below STH’s base price for the third day in a row. It traded below for 10 days in June.
As a reminder, a similar pattern appeared in 2019 when the bear market ended. Bitcoin fell from $12,500 to $6,500 trading below the STH base price from September 2019 to January 2020. According to Timothy Peterson, the probability of Bitcoin (BTC) going down from here is around 1 /3.
Closely monitor the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
Maartunn evokes the hypothesis of a movement opposite to that of two days ago. Before yesterday, Bitcoin price was down, OI was up, and funding was positive. Currently, the price is up, the consumer price index (inflation rate) is going up, and the funding is negative. However, the amount of open interest is much higher than two days ago. The movement could thus be less explosive.
The indicator presented a buy signal on the daily chart of Bitcoin (BTC), indicates Ali on Twitter. But confirmation won’t come until a sustained close above the 200-day MA. So watch the area between $25,200 and $24,800 closely in the meantime. Breaking this support could pave the way for Bictoin (BTC) to fall to $20k, he adds.
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