What if Bitcoin played against the watch? For Anatoly Yakovenko, co -founder of Solana, the advent of quantum computer science is no longer a distant hypothesis. According to him, there are 50 % chance that a major breakthrough occurs within five years. A deadline which could make obsolete the current cryptography of Bitcoin, and to compel the first crypto of the market to urgently review its security architecture.
In short
- The co -founder of Solana, Anatoly Yakovenko, estimates that there is a 50 % chance that a major breakthrough in quantum computer science occurs by 2030.
- He calls on the Bitcoin community to migrate to a post-quantic cryptography to avoid a critical flaw in the safety of wallets.
- The current Bitcoin (ECDSA) algorithm could become vulnerable if a sufficiently powerful quantum computer was born.
- A security update would involve a hard fork, an option often rejected by the Bitcoin community.
The urgency of cryptographic adaptation
During the All-In Summit 2025, Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder of Solana, launched a direct warning to the Bitcoin community, while the SEC is also grasped from the subject of quantum security.
Believing that progress in quantum computer science is much faster than you think, he said: “I think there are 50 % in the next five years so that there is a quantum breakthrough”.
According to him, the time is no longer for theoretical speculation, but for concrete preparation. “We should migrate bitcoin to a scheme of quantum cryptography resistant”he said.
Such a declaration echoes its concerns in the face of the cumulative effect of converging technologies such as artificial intelligence, advanced optics or new calculation paradigms.
Yakovenko reveals the fundamental vulnerability of the Bitcoin protocol in the face of a quantum advance, which could call into question the foundations of its security. Currently, Bitcoin portfolios are based on the ECDSA algorithm (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm), whose solidity is based on the difficulty in solving discreet elliptical logarithm, an unrealizable mathematical problem for conventional computers.
However, here is what could change if a functional quantum computer was born:
- Private keys could be derived from public keys, making millions of funds vulnerable;
- The current hash and signature algorithms would be obsolete, compromising past and future transactions;
- A transition to post-quantic cryptography would require a hard fork, a technically heavy and politically delicate operation;
- David Carvalho (Noris Protocol) precise that a quantum computer could “Tear the cryptography of bitcoin in less than five years”if current trends are confirmed.
This Yakovenko alert on Bitcoin is not simple speculation. It is part of a context where technological acceleration makes the old deadlines obsolete. For him, repelling adaptation would amount to underestimate an existential risk.
Persistent skepticism within the Bitcoin community
If Yakovenko's warning has launched a certain attention, it was not received with the same urgency by the entire ecosystem. On the side of historic bitcoiners, the tone is much more measured.
Questioned last June, Adam Back, CEO of BlockStream and respected figure of the Cyplerpunk movement, A declared that current quantum computers “Do not represent a credible threat to bitcoin cryptography”while conceding that a future threat remained likely. In his eyes, it may take 20 years before reaching a real danger level. This temporality contrasts strongly with that mentioned by Yakovenko.
Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, recognize Also a real risk, but judges that the calendar is probably still a decade of becoming critical. He even put into perspective the potential impact of this threat: “I would say that everything else will fail before bitcoin fails”.
Any major cryptographic modification of the Bitcoin protocol would imply a hard fork, a change of rules on which community consensus is notoriously difficult to obtain. Such an operation could be technically complex because the flagship crypto changes in depth.
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